IB predicted grades are the estimated final scores your teachers submit to the IB and to universities before you sit your actual exams — and for most students, they matter more than any other single number in the entire university application process, since offers are almost always made conditional on these predictions rather than on final results.
What Predicted Grades Actually Are
Each of your subject teachers assigns you a predicted grade (on the standard 1-7 scale) for your final IB exams, based on your performance in coursework, mock exams, and classroom assessment throughout the two-year programme. Your Theory of Knowledge and Extended Essay grades are also predicted, contributing to your predicted total out of 45.
Who Sets Predicted Grades and When
Predicted grades are set by your individual subject teachers, typically finalized toward the end of Year 13 (the second year of the DP), close to when university applications are submitted. Your school’s IB coordinator compiles these into your official predicted grade profile, which is then submitted to universities as part of your application (via UCAS in the UK, or directly to admissions offices elsewhere).
How Predictions Are Determined
Teachers base predicted grades on a combination of:
- Performance in mock exams, which closely simulate real exam conditions
- Coursework and IA performance throughout the course
- Overall classroom performance and demonstrated understanding of syllabus content
- Professional judgment based on experience with how students at a similar stage typically perform in the actual exam
How Accurate Are Predicted Grades?
Predicted grades are, on average, reasonably close to final results, but they are not guaranteed — some students outperform their predictions (“beating your predicted grade”), while others underperform, often due to exam-day pressure differing from mock exam conditions. Universities are generally aware that predictions carry some uncertainty, which is part of why most offers include a specific points/grade threshold you must still meet in your final exams.
Why Predicted Grades Matter So Much
For UK universities specifically, virtually all offers are made based on your predicted grades at the application stage, then confirmed (or not) once your actual results arrive. This means your predicted grades directly determine which universities and courses you can realistically apply to — a predicted 32 total, for example, makes applying to a course requiring 38 a very high-risk reach, regardless of how you might perform in the actual exams.
For competitive US universities using holistic review, predicted grades (alongside your overall transcript and coursework trajectory) are also weighed as an indicator of your likely final performance, even though offers aren’t formally conditional in the same structured way as UK offers.
What If Your Predicted Grades Are Lower Than You Hoped?
If you believe your predicted grades don’t reflect your genuine potential, talk to the specific teacher and your IB coordinator directly, ideally providing concrete evidence (recent improved mock performance, strong recent coursework) that supports a higher prediction. Teachers generally want predictions to be realistic and defensible, but genuine, evidenced improvement can shift a borderline prediction. (See our companion guide on what to do if your predicted grades are lower than expected for a full strategy.)
Can Predicted Grades Be Changed After Submission?
In some cases, yes — schools can occasionally submit revised predictions if there’s a clear, justified reason (a strong final round of mock exams, for example), though this varies by school policy and by the specific application system’s deadlines. This isn’t a routine adjustment, so it’s worth raising early rather than assuming a late change will be possible.
Final Tip
Treat your mock exams with genuine seriousness — they are usually the single biggest factor influencing your predicted grades, and by extension, which universities you’ll realistically be able to apply to.